When Saying ‘Yes’ Holds Everyone Back: Understanding and Avoiding the Abilene Paradox
When was the last time you said yes when you really wanted to say no?
Maybe it was in a meeting at work, during a family conversation, or while organizing a community event. You didn’t want to rock the boat, so you went along with it—only to find out later that no one else really wanted it either. That’s the Abilene paradox in action—a quiet decision-making trap where we mistake silence for agreement, and everyone ends up dissatisfied.
This concept came to mind when reflecting on the shocking case of Luigi Mangione, accused of killing UnitedHealth Group CEO Brian Thompson. On the surface, it’s an extreme and tragic story. But beneath it lies an important lesson for all of us: when people feel silenced, unheard, or powerless to share their dissent, the consequences can escalate in ways no one anticipated. The Abilene paradox is a less sensational but far more common symptom of this dynamic.
What is the Abilene Paradox?
The Abilene paradox occurs when groups make decisions that no one actually supports, simply because individuals are too hesitant to voice their concerns. It’s not about agreeing on a bad idea—it’s about avoiding conflict. Ironically, this avoidance leads to outcomes that no one is happy with.
Jerry B. Harvey, the management scholar who coined the term, described a simple but relatable story: a family road trip to Abilene, Texas. No one really wanted to go, but each person assumed everyone else did. Sound familiar? This dynamic plays out in boardrooms, dining rooms, and Zoom rooms every day.
The UnitedHealth Group Tragedy: A Case Study
Let’s consider the UnitedHealth Group incident. Reports suggest that Luigi Mangione harbored deep frustrations with the healthcare industry. His manifesto criticized profit-driven practices that, in his view, prioritized dollars over dignity. While Mangione wasn’t an employee of UnitedHealth Group, his actions have opened a conversation about corporate culture and the risks of ignoring or suppressing critical feedback.
What does this have to do with the Abilene paradox? Everything. Consider recent criticisms within the healthcare insurance industry. For example, internal whistleblower reports and employee statements in the sector have occasionally highlighted frustrations over systemic issues, such as aggressive claims denial policies and an overemphasis on profit margins at the expense of patient care. When these concerns go unaddressed or are actively silenced—as highlighted by reports of employees fearing backlash for voicing dissent—dissent is driven underground. Over time, frustrations fester, creating environments ripe for disengagement, poor decision-making, or even public backlash. In rare but extreme cases, such as this tragic incident, these pressures can escalate into catastrophic outcomes.
Recognizing the Abilene Paradox in Your Own Life
Here are three scenarios where the Abilene paradox might be affecting your decisions without you even realizing it:
At Work: A project proposal comes up in a meeting. You have reservations but stay quiet because everyone else seems to agree. Months later, the project fails, and it turns out no one else believed in it either.
In Your Family: Someone suggests an elaborate vacation that feels stressful and expensive. You nod along to keep the peace, but halfway through the trip, everyone’s arguing and wishing they’d done something simpler.
In Your Community: Your neighborhood proposes a big initiative like building a new playground. You’re worried about the cost and upkeep but assume everyone else is enthusiastic. As momentum stalls, you realize most people felt the same way you did.
3 Strategies to Break Free from the Abilene Paradox
Breaking out of this cycle doesn’t require grand gestures—just intentional steps that invite open dialogue and authentic feedback. Here are three strategies to get started:
1. Make Anonymity Your Ally
Silence often stems from fear: fear of judgment, fear of conflict, fear of standing out. Tools like Slido and Miro allow people to share their thoughts anonymously, which can be a game changer. Use these apps in meetings to ask tough questions like, “What concerns do you have about this plan?” You’ll be amazed at what surfaces when people feel safe.
2. Run a “Pre-Mortem”
Before committing to a major decision, imagine what failure might look like. Ask your team: “If this goes wrong, what will have caused it?” This exercise doesn’t just surface concerns—it shifts the focus from blame to prevention. Tools like Decision Lens can help simulate outcomes and build confidence in your plan.
3. Track the Unspoken with AI
Platforms like Culture Amp or Qualtrics can help leaders gauge what their teams are really thinking. These tools analyze feedback to identify gaps between what people say in meetings and how they feel. Use them to identify hidden concerns before they become bigger problems.
Why Leaders Should Care
The Abilene paradox isn’t just about avoiding bad decisions; it’s about building trust. When people feel heard, they engage more fully. When they don’t, they disengage or worse. As a leader, ask yourself: Am I creating an environment where people feel safe to disagree? Am I prioritizing meaningful input over superficial harmony?
Psychological safety isn’t a nice-to-have—it’s the foundation of every great team. The best leaders don’t just tolerate dissent; they welcome it. They know that a well-placed “No” can lead to a much stronger “Yes.”
Closing Thought
The tragedy involving Luigi Mangione is a harsh reminder of what can happen when frustrations are ignored for too long. Most of us won’t face such extreme consequences, but the lesson is clear: open dialogue isn’t just good practice—it’s essential.
Take a moment today to reflect on the decisions you’re part of. Are you inviting real input, or are you stuck in a cycle of false consensus? Breaking free from the Abilene paradox starts with one simple question: What do you really think?
